Chapter 13: Power Generation

13.1 Overview

Power is the binding constraint on the AI buildout. Every other bottleneck described in this report, from advanced packaging to optical transceivers, can be solved with money and engineering time. But electricity cannot be manufactured in a cleanroom. It requires physical generation assets, transmission infrastructure, and regulatory approvals that operate on decade-long timescales. This chapter covers the companies that generate the electricity consumed by AI data centers, from existing nuclear and gas fleets to emerging small modular reactors.

Global data center electricity consumption surged 17% in 2025, according to the IEA, far outpacing the 3% growth in global electricity demand. AI-focused data centers grew even faster. The IEA projects data center power consumption will double by 2030, with AI-focused facilities tripling. In the US specifically, data center power demand is projected to rise from approximately 50 GW in 2024 to 76 GW in 2026 and could reach 134 GW by 2030. The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimates US data center demand will reach 325-580 TWh by 2028, up from 176 TWh in 2023 ³⁷⁸.

The capital expenditure numbers explain why. Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta collectively spent over $200 billion on capex in 2024, a 62% year-over-year increase. Hyperscaler capex is forecast to exceed $600 billion in 2026. Roughly 75% of this spend is tied to AI infrastructure, and every dollar of AI infrastructure requires electricity to operate ⁷⁸.

The power generation response is unfolding across four categories. First, existing nuclear plants are being contracted under long-term PPAs with hyperscalers. Constellation Energy (the largest US nuclear fleet operator with 21 reactors producing ~19,400 MW) signed a 20-year PPA with Microsoft to restart the 835 MW Three Mile Island Unit 1, now rebranded as the Crane Clean Energy Center ($1.6 billion investment, expected online 2027). Constellation also signed a 20-year PPA with Meta for the entire 1.1 GW output of the Clinton Clean Energy Center in Illinois. Vistra (the second-largest US nuclear operator with 6 reactors producing 6,400 MW) signed a 20-year PPA for 1,200 MW from its Comanche Peak plant in Texas. AWS expanded its PPA with Talen Energy to 1,920 MW at the Susquehanna nuclear plant in Pennsylvania ⁹¹⁰¹¹¹².

Second, natural gas generation is expanding rapidly. Vistra is constructing two new gas units totaling 860 MW in the Permian Basin and acquired seven gas plants (~2,600 MW) from Lotus Infrastructure Partners. NRG Energy acquired LS Power for $12 billion, adding 13 GW of natural gas generation and a 6 GW virtual power plant platform. Constellation acquired Calpine in January 2025 for $26.6 billion, adding 26 GW of gas-fired turbine capacity. Natural gas provides the dispatchable, 24/7 power that data centers require, and it can be deployed faster than nuclear ¹¹¹²¹³.

Third, small modular reactors (SMRs) represent the next generation of nuclear power purpose-built for data center applications. NuScale is the only company with a US NRC-certified SMR design (77 MW modules, scalable to 924 MW in 12-module configurations). Oklo, backed by Sam Altman, is developing liquid metal-cooled fast reactors with a 14 GW customer pipeline, primarily from data centers. Its master power agreement with Switch covers up to 12 GW. X-energy has partnered with Amazon for 960 MW of deployment by 2039. However, no SMR is yet operational in the US, and first commercial units are not expected until the late 2020s at the earliest ¹⁴¹⁵¹⁶.

Fourth, renewables (solar, wind) and battery storage play a growing role, primarily through corporate PPAs. Microsoft has surpassed Amazon as the world’s largest clean power buyer, with 40 GW contracted as of late 2025. However, renewables cannot provide the 24/7 baseload power that data centers require without massive storage capacity. They serve as complements to nuclear and gas, not substitutes ⁷.

This chapter connects downward to the grid infrastructure layer (Chapter 14), which covers how generated power reaches the data center. It also connects to the thermal management layer (Chapter 15), since cooling is the second-largest energy consumer in a data center.

13.2 Market Sizing & Growth

US data center power demand: Approximately 50 GW in 2024, projected to reach 76 GW in 2026 and 134 GW by 2030. Data centers consumed about 4.4% of US electricity in 2023; this is projected to reach 6.7-12.0% by 2028 ³⁷⁸.

Global data center electricity consumption: Grew 17% in 2025, set to double by 2030. AI-focused data center power consumption is projected to triple by 2030. The IEA estimates AI data center electricity consumption could reach 90 TWh annually by 2026, roughly 10x 2022 levels ³⁷.

Constellation Energy: Revenue $25.5 billion in 2025. 32,400 MW total generating capacity (including Calpine acquisition). Largest US nuclear fleet: 21 reactors, ~19,400 MW. Market cap ~$90B. Three Mile Island restart ($1.6B investment) for Microsoft; Clinton plant PPA with Meta (1.1 GW, 20 years) ⁹¹⁰¹³.

Vistra: Revenue $17.7 billion in 2025. Total capacity ~38,700 MW across nuclear, gas, coal, and battery storage. 6 nuclear reactors producing 6,400 MW. EBITDA guidance $6.8-7.6B for 2026. 20-year PPA at Comanche Peak (1,200 MW). Hedged ~96% of expected generation for 2026 ¹¹¹².

NRG Energy: Acquired LS Power for $12 billion in May 2025, adding 13 GW gas and 6 GW virtual power plant. Total capacity now approximately 31 GW. Revenue $31.9B in 2024, expanded further in 2025. Serving data center customers with dispatchable gas generation ¹³.

GE Vernova: Manufactures the gas turbines (HA-class, F-class) and associated power generation equipment used in data center-adjacent gas plants. Critical supplier of generation hardware. Revenue $34.9B in 2024, guidance $36-$37B for 2025 ¹.

NuScale Power: Only NRC-certified SMR design. Revenue $31.5M in 2024 (down from $37M). Net loss $355.8M. Stock declined ~78% from October 2025 peak. Partnership with ENTRA1 Energy and TVA for 6 GW deployment. Pre-revenue for reactor operations ¹⁵¹⁶.

Oklo: Pre-revenue. Sam Altman-backed. 14 GW customer pipeline (Q3 2025). Master power agreement with Switch for up to 12 GW. Partnership with Equinix ($25M prepayment for 500 MW, 20-year PPA). Aurora powerhouse design (15 MW and 50/75 MW sizes). Stock declined ~65% from October 2025 peak. No NRC design certification yet ¹⁴¹⁵¹⁶.

Bloom Energy: Fuel cell technology for behind-the-meter generation. AEP contracted 100 MW (option to 1 GW) ³ as bridge solution for data centers. Revenue $1.47B in 2024, with product and service revenue of $1.30B ².

13.3 Supply Chain Flowchart

POWER GENERATION FOR AI DATA CENTERS
    |
    |---> EXISTING NUCLEAR FLEET (operational today, 24/7 baseload)
    |    Constellation Energy: 21 reactors, ~19,400 MW
    |         Microsoft PPA: Three Mile Island restart (835 MW, 2027)
    |         Meta PPA: Clinton plant (1.1 GW, 20-year)
    |    Vistra: 6 reactors, 6,400 MW
    |         20-year PPA: Comanche Peak (1,200 MW)
    |    Talen Energy: Susquehanna plant
    |         AWS PPA: 1,920 MW
    |    Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG): Hope Creek, Salem plants
    |    Dominion Energy: Surry, North Anna plants
    |
    |---> NATURAL GAS GENERATION (dispatchable, fast to deploy)
    |    Constellation/Calpine: 26 GW gas turbine fleet (acquired Jan 2025)
    |    Vistra: expanding gas fleet (+860 MW Permian, +2,600 MW Lotus)
    |    NRG/LS Power: 13 GW gas fleet (acquired May 2025)
    |    GE Vernova: HA-class gas turbines (generation hardware supplier)
    |    Siemens Energy: gas turbine competitor
    |    Behind-the-meter gas generation: reciprocating generators for interim power
    |
    |---> SMALL MODULAR REACTORS (emerging, first commercial units 2028-2030+)
    |    NuScale (SMR): only NRC-certified design, 77 MW modules
    |         ENTRA1/TVA partnership: 6 GW program
    |    Oklo (OKLO): liquid metal fast reactor, 15-75 MW
    |         Switch: 12 GW master agreement; Equinix: 500 MW PPA
    |    X-energy: Xe-100 (80 MW HTGR)
    |         Amazon partnership: 960 MW by 2039 (with KHNP, Doosan)
    |    Kairos Power: molten salt reactor (Hermes test reactor permitted)
    |    TerraPower (Bill Gates): Natrium sodium-cooled, 345 MW
    |    GE Hitachi: BWRX-300 (300 MW BWR, Ontario Power Generation project)
    |
    |---> RENEWABLES + STORAGE (supplementary, not 24/7 baseload alone)
    |    Solar + battery: hyperscaler PPAs (Microsoft 40 GW contracted)
    |    Wind: onshore/offshore PPAs
    |    Battery storage: utility-scale (Vistra: Moss Landing, largest in US)
    |    Limitation: cannot provide 24/7 baseload without massive overbuild
    |
    +---> BEHIND-THE-METER / BRIDGE SOLUTIONS
         Bloom Energy: fuel cells (AEP: 100 MW, option to 1 GW)
         Natural gas reciprocating generators: interim power during grid delays
         Crusoe Energy (Private): flare gas-powered data centers

13.4 Key Companies

Company	Ticker	Exchange	Approx. Mkt Cap	Role in Buildout	Key Metric
Constellation Energy	CEG	NASDAQ	~$90.0B	Largest US nuclear operator; Calpine acquisition added 26 GW gas	32,400 MW capacity; TMI restart (Microsoft) + Clinton (Meta) PPAs
Vistra	VST	NYSE	~$55.0B	#2 US nuclear; expanding gas fleet; battery storage	38,700 MW; Comanche Peak 20yr PPA; EBITDA guide $6.8-7.6B 2026
NRG Energy	NRG	NYSE	~$25.0B	Major gas/retail power; LS Power acquisition added 13 GW + 6 GW VPP	~31 GW total capacity; $12B LS Power deal; data center focus
GE Vernova	GEV	NYSE	~$280B	Gas turbine manufacturer (HA-class); grid equipment supplier	Revenue $36B+; critical hardware supplier for gas generation
Siemens Energy	ENR	XETRA (Frankfurt)	~$183B	Global gas turbine OEM (#2 behind GE Vernova); grid technology	Sold 194 gas turbines in FY2025 (up from 100 in 2024). Revenue EUR39.1B. >EUR2B in grid orders from hyperscalers.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries	7011	TSE	~$101B	Gas turbine OEM (J-class); nuclear, defense, industrial	Power Systems segment is major revenue driver. Supplies HA-equivalent class turbines globally. Japanese industrial conglomerate.
Fluence Energy	FLNC	NASDAQ	~$4.5B	Battery energy storage systems (BESS)	Siemens/AES JV. Revenue $2.7B FY2025. Grid-scale battery storage for DC power smoothing.
CATL	300750	Shenzhen	~$150B	World’s largest BESS cell manufacturer; 30.4% global share (2025)	661 GWh total shipments 2025; 5th consecutive year as market leader; capacity-constrained
FuelCell Energy	FCEL	NASDAQ	~$726M	Fuel cells for data center primary/backup power; 12.5 MW power blocks	Pipeline grew 275% since Feb 2025; 80%+ from data centers; expanding to 350 MW capacity
Caterpillar	CAT	NYSE	~$413B	Diesel/gas generators and CHP for data center backup and prime power	4 GW CHP for Utah AI DC; 125% manufacturing capacity increase; 18+ month backlogs
Cummins	CMI	NYSE	~$93.8B	Diesel/gas backup generators for data centers; 16% genset market share	$150M Minnesota expansion; QSK95 series; backlogs extending to 2028-2029
Talen Energy	TLN	NYSE	~$17.7B	Susquehanna nuclear plant (AWS 1,920 MW PPA)	Direct colocation model for hyperscaler power
NuScale Power	SMR	NYSE	~$4.3B	Only NRC-certified SMR design; 77 MW modules	Pre-revenue (reactor ops). Revenue $31.5M (2024). 6 GW TVA program
Oklo	OKLO	NYSE	~$12.5B	Sam Altman-backed SMR; liquid metal fast reactor	Pre-revenue. 14 GW pipeline. Switch 12 GW, Equinix 500 MW PPAs
Bloom Energy	BE	NYSE	~$74.2B	Fuel cells for behind-the-meter data center power	AEP 100 MW contract (option to 1 GW). Revenue ~$1.3B
Dominion Energy	D	NYSE	~$45.0B	Virginia utility; major data center load in NoVA	27 GW new generation planned by 2039; first base rate increase since 1992
NextEra Energy	NEE	NYSE	~$155B	Largest renewable energy generator; solar/wind PPAs for data centers	Not directly a data center power provider but major PPA counterparty
X-energy	Private	Private	Private	Xe-100 HTGR (80 MW); Amazon 960 MW partnership	NRC construction permit targeting late 2026 review; Dow Texas site
Kairos Power	Private	Private	Private	Molten salt reactor; Hermes test reactor permitted (Dec 2023)	First new reactor construction permit since 1970s; Google PPA
TerraPower	Private	Private (Bill Gates)	Private	Natrium sodium-cooled reactor (345 MW)	Kemmerer, WY demonstration plant; DOE cost-share
Radiant Industries	Private	Private	Private	Kaleidos microreactor (1 MW, shipping-container-sized)	Equinix preordered 20 units (Aug 2025, largest mass-manufactured reactor deal). 5-year fuel cycle, installed in days. First reactor testing 2026, customer deployments 2028.
Centrus Energy	LEU	NYSE	~$5.0B	Only US-licensed HALEU production facility (Piketon, Ohio); uranium enrichment	Record revenue 2025; $900M HALEU contract; DOE strategic partner. HALEU is required fuel for most advanced SMR designs (Oklo, X-energy, TerraPower). Supply bottleneck for entire SMR industry.
Solstice Advanced Materials	SOLS	NASDAQ	~$12.4B	Honeywell spinoff (Oct 2025); sole US uranium conversion facility (Metropolis, IL)	Only commercial US uranium conversion (UF6) facility; capacity sold out through 2030. All US nuclear fuel must pass through this single plant. Also supplies advanced cooling fluids and electronic materials ($200M Spokane expansion).
NANO Nuclear Energy	NNE	NASDAQ	~$1.4B	Microreactor developer (KRONOS, ZEUS, LOKI); HALEU fuel fabrication subsidiary	Supermicro MoU (May 2026) to power AI data centers; HEF subsidiary for domestic HALEU fuel pipeline; AFT subsidiary for HALEU transport. Pre-revenue but addresses fuel supply chain gap.
Terra Innovatum	NKLR	NASDAQ	~$406M	SOLO micro-modular reactor (<100 sq ft footprint); SPAC merger Oct 2025	$130M financing secured; first deployment 2027-2028; uses standard LEU (below 5%), can transition to HALEU. Smallest form factor nuclear for distributed DC campuses.
BWX Technologies	BWXT	NYSE	~$19.0B	Nuclear components, TRISO-X fuel, naval reactor cores; SMR manufacturing partner	Revenue ~$3B; sole US manufacturer of naval nuclear reactors; TRISO fuel fabrication for advanced reactors (X-energy, others)
Cameco Corp	CCJ	NYSE/TSX	~$49.0B	World’s second-largest uranium miner (~23% global supply); Tier 1 Athabasca Basin reserves	Uranium price recovery from $30→$80+/lb driven by nuclear renaissance; long-term contracts with utilities and enrichment partners
AES Corp	AES	NYSE	~$12.0B	Global renewable energy + battery storage; co-founder of Fluence Energy (BESS)	Hyperscaler PPA counterparty for solar/wind + storage; data center power portfolio growing
First Solar	FSLR	NASDAQ	~$24.5B	Largest US solar manufacturer; CdTe thin-film panels for utility-scale PPAs	Revenue ~$4B; US-manufactured panels avoid China supply chain risk; hyperscaler PPA supplier

The nuclear fuel supply chain that feeds Constellation, Vistra, Talen, and the SMR/microreactor companies deserves specific attention. If nuclear power is providing 20-year PPAs to hyperscalers (Constellation/Microsoft TMI, Constellation/Meta Clinton), then the upstream fuel chain is part of the AI infrastructure supply chain. Uranium mining is dominated by Kazatomprom (Kazakhstan, state-owned, ~39% of global production) and Cameco (CCJ, NYSE/TSX, Canada, ~23% of global supply). Uranium conversion (to UF6) is concentrated in five facilities globally, with ConverDyn (US, JV between General Atomics and Honeywell) providing 20% of global capacity. Uranium enrichment is the most geopolitically sensitive step: Rosatom (Russia, state-owned) controls approximately 43% of global enrichment capacity, with Urenco (Netherlands/UK/Germany, ~31%) and Orano (France, ~12%) as Western alternatives ⁴. Nuclear fuel fabrication is handled by Westinghouse (private, Brookfield-owned), Global Nuclear Fuel (GE/Toshiba/Hitachi JV), and AREVA/EDF (France). The Russian enrichment dependency is an active geopolitical risk: EU and US efforts to diversify away from Rosatom are underway but require years of capacity expansion at Urenco and Orano.

13.5 Bottleneck Analysis

Grid interconnection queue (SEVERE): Even when generation capacity exists, connecting it to data centers through the grid faces multi-year delays. In PJM (the mid-Atlantic grid operator covering Virginia, the largest US data center market), the interconnection queue has grown to 190 GW of requested capacity. Processing times routinely exceed 3-5 years. AEP cited customer commitments for 24 GW of new demand by 2030, including 18 GW from data centers, which would be five times its current system size. This backlog is the single largest constraint on data center power delivery ⁷⁸.

Nuclear PPA pricing premium (MODERATE-HIGH): Jefferies estimated Microsoft pays Constellation approximately $110-115/MWh for the Three Mile Island PPA, a significant premium to typical wholesale electricity rates ($40-60/MWh). Hyperscalers are willing to pay this premium for 24/7 carbon-free power with guaranteed availability, but the premium reflects the scarcity of nuclear capacity. As more hyperscalers compete for nuclear PPAs, prices will continue to rise, squeezing margins for data center operators ¹⁰.

SMR timeline risk (HIGH): No SMR is operational in the US. NuScale is the only company with NRC design certification, but it remains pre-revenue for reactor operations and has experienced significant stock declines. Oklo has no NRC certification. X-energy’s first reactor is not expected until 2028 at the earliest. SMRs are a 2030+ solution, not a near-term fix for data center power needs. Investors pricing SMR companies for near-term revenue are likely to be disappointed ¹⁵¹⁶.

Natural gas supply chain (MODERATE): Gas turbines from GE Vernova and Siemens Energy have lead times of 2-3 years. New gas plant permitting adds 1-2 years. Combined, a new gas plant takes 3-5 years from decision to operation. Vistra’s strategy of acquiring existing gas plants (Lotus, LS Power) rather than building new ones reflects this timeline pressure ¹¹¹². GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik confirmed on the Q1 2026 call that lead times now extend further: “We are directionally at about three years’ lead time today…the gas turbines are really not the gating item when you are talking about a three-year cycle.” He also reported that “Q1 Electrification orders to data centers were more than full-year 2025 results,” with 2029 and 2030 turbine capacity already “largely sold out” ¹⁸.

Rate impact on communities (MODERATE, rising): In PJM, data centers contributed to an estimated $9.3 billion increase in the 2025-26 capacity market, resulting in $16-18/month residential bill increases in some markets. Carnegie Mellon estimates data centers could raise the average US electricity bill 8% by 2030, exceeding 25% in high-demand markets like northern Virginia. This is creating political and regulatory backlash that could slow data center permitting ¹⁷.

13.6 Risks

Overbuilding if AI demand disappoints: The power generation investments described here are predicated on sustained AI demand growth. If efficiency improvements (DeepSeek thesis) reduce compute requirements, or if AI revenue disappoints and hyperscalers cut capex, the contracted power may not be needed. Long-term PPAs (20 years for nuclear) create stranded asset risk for generators if demand evaporates. Constellation and Vistra have hedged most of their near-term generation, limiting downside through 2027, but the longer-term risk remains.

Regulatory backlash against data center power consumption: Virginia’s Dominion Energy proposed its first base rate increase since 1992, directly linked to data center load growth. Community opposition to data center development is rising, particularly around noise, water usage, and electricity costs. If states impose moratoria or taxes on data center power consumption, the buildout could slow significantly.

Natural gas emission liability: Gas-fired generation produces CO2 emissions. Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon) have ambitious carbon reduction targets. Powering data centers with gas conflicts with these goals. This creates a tension: gas is the only commercially available, dispatchable, 24/7 power source that can be deployed within 3-5 years, but it undermines the carbon-free commitment. Nuclear solves both problems but cannot scale fast enough in the near term.

SMR technology risk: Advanced reactor designs (Oklo’s fast reactor, X-energy’s HTGR, Kairos’ molten salt) use non-traditional fuels and cooling systems that have limited operating history. Cost overruns are endemic in nuclear construction (see Vogtle 3&4, which came in $17 billion over budget) ⁵. If SMRs follow the same pattern, they will not achieve the cost competitiveness needed to attract private capital.

First principles check: Is the power constraint real? Yes. An NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 rack consumes approximately 120 kW ⁶. A 100,000-GPU data center campus requires approximately 150-200 MW of continuous power ². A 1 GW data center (which multiple hyperscalers are now building) consumes as much electricity as a city of 800,000 people ². This demand cannot be met by existing grid infrastructure in most locations. New generation capacity, new transmission lines, and new grid interconnections are physical prerequisites for AI scaling.